Today’s article was a fascinating read. It took me over an hour to read it and it excites me. I am 83 and I wish I could live to 100 so I could see the results of our space explorations. Thank you.
"The entire modern space economy hangs on that one flight not blowing up" is the sentence that contextualises everything that follows. Falcon 1 Flight 4 in September 2008, last cash on hand, three consecutive failures behind it. Every company in this guide, every data centre satellite, every space pharmacy, every asteroid miner is downstream of a coin flip that happened in a bunker on Kwajalein Atoll eighteen years ago.
The SpaceX valuation split is the analytical core though. $1 trillion for rockets and Starlink, stretched. The other trillion is a bet on orbital compute. That second trillion requires three things that don't exist yet: chips hardened for radiation at scale, thermal management that works without convection, and a latency architecture that serves real-time workloads from 550km away. Each is a solvable engineering problem. All three solving simultaneously on a timeline that justifies a trillion-dollar premium is a venture bet, not a valuation.
The Europe paragraph should be required reading in Brussels. Launched seven rockets while SpaceX matched that in two weeks. Lost independent launch capability and had to put sovereignty satellites on a competitor's rocket. Same pattern as the AI gap: built by committee, overtaken by iteration.
Wonderful write up. Nearly Bruce Rubin's age, I'm 79 and fascinated, and astonished, and excited, and hopeful. I hope he and I and my wife of 60 years, and our peer age friends, make it to 100 plus in good shape, still optimistic and full of hope, inspite of the perils and contagion and pitfalls and ... all that goes along with this good life. May we spread abudance and decrease strife, hunger, and pain. Keep encouraging us, friend. You're attitude is contageous in a good way.
The core issue is a change in the cost of doing things that are useful. Lower costs make a lot of stuff commercially available and make for an interesting source of investment ideas. Thanks for pointing this out!
The government had a monopoly on space for over 50 years, called NASA. Capitalism has done more in 20 years. Obviously capitalism is superior to managed economies, government monopolies,and yes; socialism.
True. But governments have a role. They have the most patient seed money. Notice how many start-ups are surviving on government contracts and grants. They were also the only ones interested in space until Elon came along to show a better way.
Another fantastic read. I have no interest what so ever in flying or space travel but LOVE reading about all the innovators and their
work.
Elon's legacy may be far greater in the companies and innovators he's spawned than the actual companies he produced (which are in themselves mind boggling). As others have said it's an amazing time to be alive and see what is happening.
I’m optimistic that the space industry can do marvellous things…. But…. Just how many objects can go into orbit and a Kessler Syndrome event of some scale not happen?
It’s a disaster waiting to happen and I don’t see any regulatory processes in play 🤷🏻♂️
Curious how many of these companies you and associates have investments in. I have to believe that's part of how you can make this pay off. Thanks for the great work.
"ICEYE produces a fresh satellite roughly once a week and raked in over €250 million in revenue in 2025."
Something missing there. €5 million a week revenue won't pay for a new satellite in orbit. Either they have huge revenue expansion plans, or they intend to stop adding more satellites in orbit, or some combination.
Today’s article was a fascinating read. It took me over an hour to read it and it excites me. I am 83 and I wish I could live to 100 so I could see the results of our space explorations. Thank you.
"The entire modern space economy hangs on that one flight not blowing up" is the sentence that contextualises everything that follows. Falcon 1 Flight 4 in September 2008, last cash on hand, three consecutive failures behind it. Every company in this guide, every data centre satellite, every space pharmacy, every asteroid miner is downstream of a coin flip that happened in a bunker on Kwajalein Atoll eighteen years ago.
The SpaceX valuation split is the analytical core though. $1 trillion for rockets and Starlink, stretched. The other trillion is a bet on orbital compute. That second trillion requires three things that don't exist yet: chips hardened for radiation at scale, thermal management that works without convection, and a latency architecture that serves real-time workloads from 550km away. Each is a solvable engineering problem. All three solving simultaneously on a timeline that justifies a trillion-dollar premium is a venture bet, not a valuation.
The Europe paragraph should be required reading in Brussels. Launched seven rockets while SpaceX matched that in two weeks. Lost independent launch capability and had to put sovereignty satellites on a competitor's rocket. Same pattern as the AI gap: built by committee, overtaken by iteration.
Wonderful write up. Nearly Bruce Rubin's age, I'm 79 and fascinated, and astonished, and excited, and hopeful. I hope he and I and my wife of 60 years, and our peer age friends, make it to 100 plus in good shape, still optimistic and full of hope, inspite of the perils and contagion and pitfalls and ... all that goes along with this good life. May we spread abudance and decrease strife, hunger, and pain. Keep encouraging us, friend. You're attitude is contageous in a good way.
The Musk doubters need to read this brilliant article and wind their necks in!
The core issue is a change in the cost of doing things that are useful. Lower costs make a lot of stuff commercially available and make for an interesting source of investment ideas. Thanks for pointing this out!
The government had a monopoly on space for over 50 years, called NASA. Capitalism has done more in 20 years. Obviously capitalism is superior to managed economies, government monopolies,and yes; socialism.
True. But governments have a role. They have the most patient seed money. Notice how many start-ups are surviving on government contracts and grants. They were also the only ones interested in space until Elon came along to show a better way.
Agreed
Another fantastic read. I have no interest what so ever in flying or space travel but LOVE reading about all the innovators and their
work.
Elon's legacy may be far greater in the companies and innovators he's spawned than the actual companies he produced (which are in themselves mind boggling). As others have said it's an amazing time to be alive and see what is happening.
I do like your call "so more rational optimists can dream bigger, together"
I just hope my HOA doesn't find out about Planet Labs.
Great article. Thank you.
I’m optimistic that the space industry can do marvellous things…. But…. Just how many objects can go into orbit and a Kessler Syndrome event of some scale not happen?
It’s a disaster waiting to happen and I don’t see any regulatory processes in play 🤷🏻♂️
I am wondering where Redwire fits in
Excellent overview. TY!!
Agreed.
Curious how many of these companies you and associates have investments in. I have to believe that's part of how you can make this pay off. Thanks for the great work.
I presume that all the up and coming companies are still not traded in the public markets
"ICEYE produces a fresh satellite roughly once a week and raked in over €250 million in revenue in 2025."
Something missing there. €5 million a week revenue won't pay for a new satellite in orbit. Either they have huge revenue expansion plans, or they intend to stop adding more satellites in orbit, or some combination.