An inspiring article. Yes, we Americans are innovative, determined, persistent, and flexible in our creative processes. We need to believe in ourselves and tune out all of the negative press and ridiculous politics. Let's keep imagining a better future for all working together to overcome obstacles and produce the best end results.
There is a key metric everyone should learn- robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. Around 50 years ago hypercompetent elites (a rarity) in South Korea and Singapore recognised the danger of relying too heavily on the service sector for employment, with its tendency to generate at least two low value jobs for every high value job, and invested accordingly. Now they top the charts in robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers.
Globally, manufacturing jobs are going to decline due to technology, but conversely those with the highest number of robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers will dominate in manufacturing, and will enjoy greater latitude in what consumers pay for their products. Higher capital investment barriers to market predict a narrowing of competition, even in the higher end electronics sector. One of the biggest sectors in play is automotive. Europe looks set to lose about half of its car industry, with exorbitant energy prices due to renewables and an inability to build nuclear cheaply (unlike Asia) a key factor. They also cannot compete in terms of quality and price in the EV market. And it's not just physical manufacturing. Ten years from now only half as many people will be driving Audi, BMW and Mercedes.
It's also worth noting that 25% still want to work in manufacturing, although the figure drops to 15% for the younger generations. It's also worth noting that a huge percentage any population is going to be incapable of working in the ultra-high-margin sectors like global finance, luxury services, tech platforms which account for higher value employment. No amount of education or training can increase suitability for certain types of work, and to argue otherwise is tantamount to blank slatism.
However, manufacturing isn't the only primary or secondary sector which America can or should expand. Non-fossil mineral mining in America only accounts for about 1% of GDP, but it has far greater downstream consequences. Areas like electronics, aerospace, green tech and defence manufacturing are heavily dependant on critical minerals, but the value add gets counted under manufacturing and technology. China enjoys a huge advantage in this area, and its why they've either been attempting to achieve supply chain dominance with these vital minerals, or actively funding environmental activist groups lobbying against expanded mineral extraction in the West.
It's not at all infeasible that environmental standard in America could be relaxed to around the level of Australia, which isn't known for its environmental hazards, toxic population or poor health outcomes. With a more relaxed regulatory environment, and capital investments of between $50-$100 billion over 10 to 15 years, it's not at all unrealistic to expect an addition of $200 billion per year to the American economy, a doubling of extraction jobs, 500K to one million jobs downstream in the secondary and tertiary sectors, with an increase of $250 to $500 per year to average American incomes, in real terms.
Great to see some of these ideas being implemented. And by a guy from Australia with only $6K start up capital? Only in America???!! If we can keep the regulators within responsible boundaries.
When do we automate the production of wise and successful laws? :-)
But since manufacturing is essentially the use of information to manipulate materials to make goods (or goods for use in services), it is good to see greater cross over between the designers and the manufacturing engineers. However, software design tools need to incorporate more mfg. insights directly into the CAD design tools. Perhaps now they do?
Aye, there's the rub, wise and successful laws. It's governments which strangle innovation; markets take care of private bureaucrats. About the only good thing politicians and their pet bureaucrats do is tell people which industries or fields are so new that they haven't been strangled yet.
I like to think that the future of manufacturing in the US will be less Henry Ford and more Chip Foose. Foose designs show cars and one-off dream machines, but he also pays the bills with custom wheels and accessories. US readers might remember the show "Overhaulin'" in the early 00's, where a team would take a classic project car that the owner never restored and had a week or so to take it from barn find to rolling art.
Imagine if everything you owned was as customized as your iPhone Home Screen. The base of our automobiles might be the same as everyone else's but that's it. Perhaps you just reuse your old products but up-cycle them every few years. Everything else is just what you want, is easy to change if you decide it isn't working, and is built in your neighborhood "factory" ...that looks more like a makerspace than a production line.
Your clothes are all tailored and fit perfectly (and hide your... ahem... imperfections). Your bunions are factored in to your footwear, as is your plantar fasciitis. Your desk is built to support your unique needs and job duties, not a generic cubicle that doesn't fit anyone's ergonomics.
Sure there will still be plenty of mass produced hardware, that's the basic building blocks. But it will be adapted, customizable and remixed.
How will this be affordable? Well, at first it won't be. That's why the only people doing it now are in military aerospace, where cost is no concern. Or it will be cheap garbage that won't last as long, like the current state of consumer 3D printing. But after a few years of iteration it will be better and eventually will overtake existing design and manufacturing.
Not to mention that a decentralized system will be far less likely to attract attention of local governments, labor unions and other leaches with their love of taxing success. GM pulling out of Flint MI is a disaster. A local franchise manufacturer that looks more like a mechanic shop than a factory shuttering isn't the end of the world, especially if there are 4 others in town.
I keep trying to tell my 83 year old husband that all is not lost and that AI will reinvent our world similarly to when this country industrialized. It seems like every time we are on the cusp of a revolution of some kind, there are the naysayers who think jobs will be lost, robots will kill us, we’ll have no privacy and on and on. When I read the Rational Optimist, all of that heavy lifting gets floated up to the sky and suddenly I’m smiling and looking forward to the future despite the fact that in all likelihood I won’t be around for the best of what’s to come, that is unless somehow someone figures out ageless eternal health! Now that would be something!
At investment meetings I was impressed by a company , Soligen , that was doing 3D printing of sand casts a quarter century ago . Apparently they are no longer around .
Really? You're going to go with that one? You do understand, I'm sure, that nearly 100% of the people reading that will immediately realize it's bullshit. Right?
Avoid promoting the technological mafia, robots, experts and those who are working towards a global government. Nation states will be ruined and humans everywhere suffer as technocracy and digitization take over democracy and freedoms.
Find an innovator who can solve our debt crisis.
Gotta grow fast. It's the only way.
An inspiring article. Yes, we Americans are innovative, determined, persistent, and flexible in our creative processes. We need to believe in ourselves and tune out all of the negative press and ridiculous politics. Let's keep imagining a better future for all working together to overcome obstacles and produce the best end results.
There is a key metric everyone should learn- robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. Around 50 years ago hypercompetent elites (a rarity) in South Korea and Singapore recognised the danger of relying too heavily on the service sector for employment, with its tendency to generate at least two low value jobs for every high value job, and invested accordingly. Now they top the charts in robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers.
Globally, manufacturing jobs are going to decline due to technology, but conversely those with the highest number of robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers will dominate in manufacturing, and will enjoy greater latitude in what consumers pay for their products. Higher capital investment barriers to market predict a narrowing of competition, even in the higher end electronics sector. One of the biggest sectors in play is automotive. Europe looks set to lose about half of its car industry, with exorbitant energy prices due to renewables and an inability to build nuclear cheaply (unlike Asia) a key factor. They also cannot compete in terms of quality and price in the EV market. And it's not just physical manufacturing. Ten years from now only half as many people will be driving Audi, BMW and Mercedes.
It's also worth noting that 25% still want to work in manufacturing, although the figure drops to 15% for the younger generations. It's also worth noting that a huge percentage any population is going to be incapable of working in the ultra-high-margin sectors like global finance, luxury services, tech platforms which account for higher value employment. No amount of education or training can increase suitability for certain types of work, and to argue otherwise is tantamount to blank slatism.
However, manufacturing isn't the only primary or secondary sector which America can or should expand. Non-fossil mineral mining in America only accounts for about 1% of GDP, but it has far greater downstream consequences. Areas like electronics, aerospace, green tech and defence manufacturing are heavily dependant on critical minerals, but the value add gets counted under manufacturing and technology. China enjoys a huge advantage in this area, and its why they've either been attempting to achieve supply chain dominance with these vital minerals, or actively funding environmental activist groups lobbying against expanded mineral extraction in the West.
It's not at all infeasible that environmental standard in America could be relaxed to around the level of Australia, which isn't known for its environmental hazards, toxic population or poor health outcomes. With a more relaxed regulatory environment, and capital investments of between $50-$100 billion over 10 to 15 years, it's not at all unrealistic to expect an addition of $200 billion per year to the American economy, a doubling of extraction jobs, 500K to one million jobs downstream in the secondary and tertiary sectors, with an increase of $250 to $500 per year to average American incomes, in real terms.
The highlight of my week. Thank you!
Great to see some of these ideas being implemented. And by a guy from Australia with only $6K start up capital? Only in America???!! If we can keep the regulators within responsible boundaries.
When do we automate the production of wise and successful laws? :-)
But since manufacturing is essentially the use of information to manipulate materials to make goods (or goods for use in services), it is good to see greater cross over between the designers and the manufacturing engineers. However, software design tools need to incorporate more mfg. insights directly into the CAD design tools. Perhaps now they do?
Aye, there's the rub, wise and successful laws. It's governments which strangle innovation; markets take care of private bureaucrats. About the only good thing politicians and their pet bureaucrats do is tell people which industries or fields are so new that they haven't been strangled yet.
I like to think that the future of manufacturing in the US will be less Henry Ford and more Chip Foose. Foose designs show cars and one-off dream machines, but he also pays the bills with custom wheels and accessories. US readers might remember the show "Overhaulin'" in the early 00's, where a team would take a classic project car that the owner never restored and had a week or so to take it from barn find to rolling art.
Imagine if everything you owned was as customized as your iPhone Home Screen. The base of our automobiles might be the same as everyone else's but that's it. Perhaps you just reuse your old products but up-cycle them every few years. Everything else is just what you want, is easy to change if you decide it isn't working, and is built in your neighborhood "factory" ...that looks more like a makerspace than a production line.
Your clothes are all tailored and fit perfectly (and hide your... ahem... imperfections). Your bunions are factored in to your footwear, as is your plantar fasciitis. Your desk is built to support your unique needs and job duties, not a generic cubicle that doesn't fit anyone's ergonomics.
Sure there will still be plenty of mass produced hardware, that's the basic building blocks. But it will be adapted, customizable and remixed.
How will this be affordable? Well, at first it won't be. That's why the only people doing it now are in military aerospace, where cost is no concern. Or it will be cheap garbage that won't last as long, like the current state of consumer 3D printing. But after a few years of iteration it will be better and eventually will overtake existing design and manufacturing.
Not to mention that a decentralized system will be far less likely to attract attention of local governments, labor unions and other leaches with their love of taxing success. GM pulling out of Flint MI is a disaster. A local franchise manufacturer that looks more like a mechanic shop than a factory shuttering isn't the end of the world, especially if there are 4 others in town.
Great essay
I keep trying to tell my 83 year old husband that all is not lost and that AI will reinvent our world similarly to when this country industrialized. It seems like every time we are on the cusp of a revolution of some kind, there are the naysayers who think jobs will be lost, robots will kill us, we’ll have no privacy and on and on. When I read the Rational Optimist, all of that heavy lifting gets floated up to the sky and suddenly I’m smiling and looking forward to the future despite the fact that in all likelihood I won’t be around for the best of what’s to come, that is unless somehow someone figures out ageless eternal health! Now that would be something!
At investment meetings I was impressed by a company , Soligen , that was doing 3D printing of sand casts a quarter century ago . Apparently they are no longer around .
But the tek is .
"Instead, America should embrace its superpower: innovation. Innovation brings abundance, where everyone wins."
Sounds great, like a regular WEF announcement! But tell us, in the past half-century of furious innovation, did everyone win? Or maybe 1-10% won?
Everyone won. Top 1-10% won the most.
Really? You're going to go with that one? You do understand, I'm sure, that nearly 100% of the people reading that will immediately realize it's bullshit. Right?
Everyone won? That is fucking hilarious.
Avoid promoting the technological mafia, robots, experts and those who are working towards a global government. Nation states will be ruined and humans everywhere suffer as technocracy and digitization take over democracy and freedoms.