Israel has offered to live at peace with its neighbors since 1948. (and long before) It has been answered by violence and war every time. You may wish they didn’t exist, but they do. They intend to continue to exist. I support their right to defend against aggression in the same way I support Portugal’s right.
You've slaughtered 10s of thousands of children of both sexes with USA debt & tax paid 1000kg bombs demolishing their entire neighborhoods , and you pirate humanitarian flotillas 100s of km out in the Mediterranean seeking to morally break your starvation siege . Why don't Gazans have open access to their own shore -- which you've demolished , btw .
Indeed. Mankind has been having whoshes ever since the invention of the steam engine. Railroads were a big whoosh. And electricity, and ICEs, and airplanes, telephones, Radio, TV, transistors - all a near continuous whoosh for the people of the times for the past two centuries. One wonders why the Neanderthals, who were here for a few hundred thousand years longer than us, only had one tiny whoosh, just stone, from their beginning to their end.
You didn't mention robots making robots (which, for industrial robots, is already the case). Now extend that to pretty much everything. We are headed for an age of abundance.
I read the Rational Optimist every week. This week contains several graphic charts I find fascinating but are so small in print I can't read them. Please incorporate the ability to enlarge your graphics with a clickable link to improve your readers ability to follow them!
You wrote: Get ready for drones that stamp out wildfires (Seneca Systems), drones that kill bad guys (Neros) and drones that make it rain (Rainmaker).
Who decides who is a bad guy? If Neros is making such drones now, there will be makers of such drones in many different countries in a year or two. I try to be an optimist, but the rational part of me sees some very dystopian possibilities, and the Singularity trends you describe don't really leave us time to think about and prepare for some potential negative consequences.
I would appreciate an ROS Deep dive into How close are we to "Recursive Self Improvement"? As Galland mentioned Robots are making Robots. Maybe this is how evolution was supposed to happen. Carbon bases life has evolved as far as it can on this planet based on Sugar + O2 ==> Energy +CO2 +H2O. Try the same thing with Si & exhaling SiO2 (sand) is "challenging"!
This Accelerating Rate of Change has been around for some time like a flock of Black Swans just landed.
I started Engineering school with a Log-Log Duplex Desi Trig calculator; AKA Slide Rule! How things have changed! Only recently realized you go to school to learn how to learn!
Would also appreciate Deep Dive into companies working on increasing the power output of PV Cells up to the max of typical sunlight.
Some good stuff here, but you lost me about humans eventually being unable to drive by 2050. All these 'services' travel on paved roads in metropolitan areas. Not aware of a single 'service' being used in rural areas or small towns. Lots of people do four-wheel driving for various reasons out in the boonies. On top of that, Waymo uses Jaguars, whose supportability may be highly questionable, don't see many for sale anymore. At most, it may become illegal for people to drive in certain parts of certain cities. Like reading the presentations but always take them with a grain of salt.
Solar, battery and fusion are pipe dreams. While they sound good and can be touted as a savior, you are misinformed about their usefulness and costs. Sorry, I like your weekly newsletter but last week was out there too.
I tend to agree. The intermittency (day-night) and irregularity (clouds-no clouds) and low density of solar are big problems but perhaps more solvable that the materials issue with fusion. Panels in space perhaps but at what cost to replace them every few years because of solar plasma damage? As to fusion, can anyone find materials or a system sufficient to contain plasma at a few hundred million degrees with a neutron flux of 10^16ish neutrons/cm/sec at approaching-light-speed energy for more than a minute, a day, a week? To me, that seems really tough! Maybe someone thinks they have a solution but haven't said so yet. And no, greater than break-even fusion has not yet been achieved anywhere but in bombs. The ignition facility shot(s) got more thermal fusion energy out than laser energy in but nowhere near the energy required to charge and fire the lasers.
I still hear thoughtful colleagues say, “We need to pause AI until we establish guardrails.” But that assumes AI has not already arrived. Phrases like “the horse has left the barn,” “that ship has sailed,” and “the genie is out of the bottle” come to mind. AI is already here, and we should focus on using it to reduce hunger, homelessness, mental illness, and human need more broadly. If we succeed, people could spend more time on what they enjoy—art, travel, and other pursuits—without constant financial pressure. Social classes could fade. That future seems possible, and perhaps closer than I once thought.
when we develop the integrity to explain honestly our common past, when we have the confidence to trust our potential with virtue and truth building with everyday effort... slowly the ignorance of mankind will transform into an open-ness to encompass our innate curiosity and commonly found beneficial social behavior. Until then, expect selfishness and self righteousness to prevail, be it from whatever form of spiritual tradition or governing bodies. To determine arbitrarily, the wrongs or rights of any one group, ignores the path of most who have come along the same trail, we are a relatively young human, Homo sapiens, species. Education is key, not prejudice and ignorant thinking. Look inside, how many things do you consider, and how often do you attempt to view the other side of the opposing viewpoint (?) The Aquarian Age has begun, we have thousands of years of "recorded" human history, learn from whom we are and what we have done to better understand where we can go and become. The Universe is layers of energy, how deeply do you attempt to understand (?) This perhaps is the most important question, "who do you think you are (?). What do you really know (?). What assumptions are you basing your beliefs upon, fact or fiction or faith is a polite word (?). Think and become, the time has arrived. Has the singularity begun, obviously!
Excellent. This accelleration toward the singularity is sort of scary. That's true. No doubt. But exciting. Keep up the analysis of how it all fits and shakes out for the general public.
Has a cure for radical Islam yet been found? I have no fear of technology. It does not address our deepest needs.
Cure willful stupidity and take care of that in addition to progressivism, communism and all the other isms that plague civilization.
As soon as you cure radical Zionism .
One may dislike Zionism and recognize they are not raping young girls, blowing stuff up. I don’t spend my time worrying about them.
Israel has offered to live at peace with its neighbors since 1948. (and long before) It has been answered by violence and war every time. You may wish they didn’t exist, but they do. They intend to continue to exist. I support their right to defend against aggression in the same way I support Portugal’s right.
The Hell they are not !
You've slaughtered 10s of thousands of children of both sexes with USA debt & tax paid 1000kg bombs demolishing their entire neighborhoods , and you pirate humanitarian flotillas 100s of km out in the Mediterranean seeking to morally break your starvation siege . Why don't Gazans have open access to their own shore -- which you've demolished , btw .
A bit of historical perspective might help; or not.
The last 7+ decades don't help the Zionist case .
Nor does any fundamental sense of morality & EQUALITY .
The future looks brilliant. The present is filled with fear and rage. We have to get through a few years first. CMac
The present has always been filled with fear and rage - nothing uniquely cursed about this time period.
The future has always been the exciting part: the things we hope for and dream of, and the things we can't even imagine.
Indeed. Mankind has been having whoshes ever since the invention of the steam engine. Railroads were a big whoosh. And electricity, and ICEs, and airplanes, telephones, Radio, TV, transistors - all a near continuous whoosh for the people of the times for the past two centuries. One wonders why the Neanderthals, who were here for a few hundred thousand years longer than us, only had one tiny whoosh, just stone, from their beginning to their end.
The Watt Steam Engine . 250 years ago this year .
You didn't mention robots making robots (which, for industrial robots, is already the case). Now extend that to pretty much everything. We are headed for an age of abundance.
I read the Rational Optimist every week. This week contains several graphic charts I find fascinating but are so small in print I can't read them. Please incorporate the ability to enlarge your graphics with a clickable link to improve your readers ability to follow them!
You wrote: Get ready for drones that stamp out wildfires (Seneca Systems), drones that kill bad guys (Neros) and drones that make it rain (Rainmaker).
Who decides who is a bad guy? If Neros is making such drones now, there will be makers of such drones in many different countries in a year or two. I try to be an optimist, but the rational part of me sees some very dystopian possibilities, and the Singularity trends you describe don't really leave us time to think about and prepare for some potential negative consequences.
In my 94 yrs. I have witness many changes and innovations which required time to develop but what I read in this letter is mind boggling.
Love this blog and look forward to it each week
WOW!!! Another Great Sunday Morning Eye Opener!
I would appreciate an ROS Deep dive into How close are we to "Recursive Self Improvement"? As Galland mentioned Robots are making Robots. Maybe this is how evolution was supposed to happen. Carbon bases life has evolved as far as it can on this planet based on Sugar + O2 ==> Energy +CO2 +H2O. Try the same thing with Si & exhaling SiO2 (sand) is "challenging"!
This Accelerating Rate of Change has been around for some time like a flock of Black Swans just landed.
I started Engineering school with a Log-Log Duplex Desi Trig calculator; AKA Slide Rule! How things have changed! Only recently realized you go to school to learn how to learn!
Would also appreciate Deep Dive into companies working on increasing the power output of PV Cells up to the max of typical sunlight.
Love starting my Sunday morning with a dose of optimism, fascinating!
Some good stuff here, but you lost me about humans eventually being unable to drive by 2050. All these 'services' travel on paved roads in metropolitan areas. Not aware of a single 'service' being used in rural areas or small towns. Lots of people do four-wheel driving for various reasons out in the boonies. On top of that, Waymo uses Jaguars, whose supportability may be highly questionable, don't see many for sale anymore. At most, it may become illegal for people to drive in certain parts of certain cities. Like reading the presentations but always take them with a grain of salt.
Great article...probablky the best you have written, so far...we can't imagine all of the ramifications as a result of such advances!
Solar, battery and fusion are pipe dreams. While they sound good and can be touted as a savior, you are misinformed about their usefulness and costs. Sorry, I like your weekly newsletter but last week was out there too.
I tend to agree. The intermittency (day-night) and irregularity (clouds-no clouds) and low density of solar are big problems but perhaps more solvable that the materials issue with fusion. Panels in space perhaps but at what cost to replace them every few years because of solar plasma damage? As to fusion, can anyone find materials or a system sufficient to contain plasma at a few hundred million degrees with a neutron flux of 10^16ish neutrons/cm/sec at approaching-light-speed energy for more than a minute, a day, a week? To me, that seems really tough! Maybe someone thinks they have a solution but haven't said so yet. And no, greater than break-even fusion has not yet been achieved anywhere but in bombs. The ignition facility shot(s) got more thermal fusion energy out than laser energy in but nowhere near the energy required to charge and fire the lasers.
I would like to see the data to that Dave uses to back up his statements.
Here’s a start to everything I read about electricity production.
I still hear thoughtful colleagues say, “We need to pause AI until we establish guardrails.” But that assumes AI has not already arrived. Phrases like “the horse has left the barn,” “that ship has sailed,” and “the genie is out of the bottle” come to mind. AI is already here, and we should focus on using it to reduce hunger, homelessness, mental illness, and human need more broadly. If we succeed, people could spend more time on what they enjoy—art, travel, and other pursuits—without constant financial pressure. Social classes could fade. That future seems possible, and perhaps closer than I once thought.
when we develop the integrity to explain honestly our common past, when we have the confidence to trust our potential with virtue and truth building with everyday effort... slowly the ignorance of mankind will transform into an open-ness to encompass our innate curiosity and commonly found beneficial social behavior. Until then, expect selfishness and self righteousness to prevail, be it from whatever form of spiritual tradition or governing bodies. To determine arbitrarily, the wrongs or rights of any one group, ignores the path of most who have come along the same trail, we are a relatively young human, Homo sapiens, species. Education is key, not prejudice and ignorant thinking. Look inside, how many things do you consider, and how often do you attempt to view the other side of the opposing viewpoint (?) The Aquarian Age has begun, we have thousands of years of "recorded" human history, learn from whom we are and what we have done to better understand where we can go and become. The Universe is layers of energy, how deeply do you attempt to understand (?) This perhaps is the most important question, "who do you think you are (?). What do you really know (?). What assumptions are you basing your beliefs upon, fact or fiction or faith is a polite word (?). Think and become, the time has arrived. Has the singularity begun, obviously!
Constant great information
Excellent. This accelleration toward the singularity is sort of scary. That's true. No doubt. But exciting. Keep up the analysis of how it all fits and shakes out for the general public.