Interesting and persuasive article. As someone who is already retired, I don’t have much concern about AI taking over my job, but I read a lot about the alleged benefits and drawbacks of increasing AI usage. Your point about new technologies always creating previously unimagined employment opportunities is not being discussed as much as it deserves, and I thank you for expressing it so well.
Weird take! We've got Bill Gates saying humans won't be needed for anything in just a few short years, a kid in Florida who killed himself because AI talked him into it, a terrifying article in the NYT last week about something called "AI 2027," kids spitting out essay papers from ChatGPT, the avalanche of increased electricity use etc., etc. This technology is incredibly problematic and a blanket encouragement for everyone to use it is highly irresponsible. Can we fix some of this stuff first? Holy cow.
On February 25, Sam Altman said that OpenA1 in its present incarnation can perform a single-digit percentage of all economically valuable tasks in the world. That's potentially an immediate loss of up to 9% of all jobs. And I don't think that Altman meant working in rice paddys either. He meant the type of knowledge work and skilled production work that presently makes up a large percentage of the American economy, because those are the kinds of jobs that AI is best suited for.
So the displaced workers start polishing their resumes and knocking on doors. Everywhere they go, if they want to do similar work at similar pay, they will find AI doing the job quicker, better and cheaper. Ah yes, they can learn to code. The only problem is that AI has already learned to code and can do it quicker, better and cheaper. In the last year the coding industry has shed a substantial percentage of jobs.
They can re-train for something that is outside AI's skill set. The history of re-training is one of lower job satisfaction and lower pay. There will be a Titanic-like stampede for the limited number of jobs that fit the applicant's requirements and abilities.
Interesting and persuasive article. As someone who is already retired, I don’t have much concern about AI taking over my job, but I read a lot about the alleged benefits and drawbacks of increasing AI usage. Your point about new technologies always creating previously unimagined employment opportunities is not being discussed as much as it deserves, and I thank you for expressing it so well.
Weird take! We've got Bill Gates saying humans won't be needed for anything in just a few short years, a kid in Florida who killed himself because AI talked him into it, a terrifying article in the NYT last week about something called "AI 2027," kids spitting out essay papers from ChatGPT, the avalanche of increased electricity use etc., etc. This technology is incredibly problematic and a blanket encouragement for everyone to use it is highly irresponsible. Can we fix some of this stuff first? Holy cow.
AI, like other technologies before it, helps put the "means of production" in more hands than ever before.
On February 25, Sam Altman said that OpenA1 in its present incarnation can perform a single-digit percentage of all economically valuable tasks in the world. That's potentially an immediate loss of up to 9% of all jobs. And I don't think that Altman meant working in rice paddys either. He meant the type of knowledge work and skilled production work that presently makes up a large percentage of the American economy, because those are the kinds of jobs that AI is best suited for.
So the displaced workers start polishing their resumes and knocking on doors. Everywhere they go, if they want to do similar work at similar pay, they will find AI doing the job quicker, better and cheaper. Ah yes, they can learn to code. The only problem is that AI has already learned to code and can do it quicker, better and cheaper. In the last year the coding industry has shed a substantial percentage of jobs.
They can re-train for something that is outside AI's skill set. The history of re-training is one of lower job satisfaction and lower pay. There will be a Titanic-like stampede for the limited number of jobs that fit the applicant's requirements and abilities.
I suggest that your optimism is misplaced.