The Near-Term Future of Flight

By David Galland, for The Rational Optimist Society

I turned right out of Chicago’s Hancock building and was about to cross the street when something at the far end of the towering canyon of buildings leading to Lake Michigan caught my attention.

To my utter surprise, hovering stationery over the lake at the end of the canyon was a warplane with its business end pointing in my direction.

For context, the year was 1976 and I had arrived in Chicago directly from my home in rural Hawaii to take my first “real” job.

Which may be why my mind literally could not compute what I was looking at. In my limited life experience, planes didn’t hover in the air just off the ground.

For a moment I was sure I was looking at a UFO. Which, to me, it very much was.

As I stood there with mouth agape, the UFO—pictured above—rotated 90 degrees on its axis, titled upwards and shot into the sky.

“Ubbada, Dubbada…” I mumbled, or something to that effect.

(Can you guess what UFO I saw? Details below.)

Which brings me to today’s topic—The Near-Term Future of Flight, a look at technological advancements set to revitalize aviation in the foreseeable future.

In its essence, flying comes down to safely transporting people and/or goods from Point A to Point B far quicker than is possible with any other form of transportation.

Yet, as Rational Optimist Society co-founder Stephen McBride has pointed out, for the last 50 years aviation has been largely stuck in a rut. By one key measure, speed, it has gone backwards.

Case in point: The Concorde supersonic passenger jet—which operated commercially from January 1976 to October 2003—flew at Mach 2.04 (1,354 mph), cutting transatlantic flight times in half.

By comparison, the fastest commercial passenger jet currently operating, the Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental, has a cruising speed of Mach 0.855, or approximately 652 mph. That’s over 50% slower than the Concorde.

High costs, the FAA’s ban on supersonic flight over land, the crash of Air France Flight 4590 in 2000, and declining demand due to ticket prices and safety concerns ultimately led to the Concorde’s retirement after 27 years. Its final flight marked a pause in supersonic commercial travel which continues to this day.

All of that may be about to change.

Although I’ve spent long hours trying to ensure the technical details are accurate in what follows, I apologize in advance to more scientifically minded readers if I’ve overlooked or misstated any technical nuances regarding the current efforts to bring supersonic flight back to the masses.

Commercial Supersonic Flight

Despite having already achieved supersonic commercial flight more than 50 years ago, bringing super-fast air travel back is tremendously difficult.

While there are any number of failures I could mention—and will as this missive unfolds—I’ll begin with the Aerion Corporation.

Founded in 2003 by Texas billionaire Robert Bass, the company aimed to develop supersonic business jets featuring innovative aerodynamic designs to minimize the impact of sonic booms.

Despite securing partnerships with Boeing, GE Aviation, and NASA, and generating over $11 billion in pre-orders, the company burned through $1 billion before the high cost of development led to the company's demise in May 2021.

Keep Aerion in mind as you read about today’s competitors in the supersonic race.

Boom Supersonic

Most advanced, best financed

Odds are you’ve heard about Boom Supersonic and their planned Overture passenger jet, shown here in an artist’s rendering.

Boom Supersonic was founded in 2014 by Blake Scholl, a former Amazon executive with a dream: to make commercial supersonic travel a reality again.

On February 10, 2025, their XB-1 test jet exceeded Mach 1.1 during its second supersonic flight over the Mojave Desert. Importantly, nobody on the ground heard a thing, thanks to Boom's application of a concept called “Mach cutoff.”

Simply put, by flying within a specific atmospheric sweet spot—found at high altitudes where the air is frigid and sound travels more slowly—the sonic boom bends upward, never reaching the ground.

It’s not new physics—it’s clever engineering, powered by Boom’s proprietary Symphony engines and an AI autopilot that tweaks speed based on real-time atmospheric data. This isn’t Concorde 2.0; it’s a leap beyond.

Boom’s goal is for Overture to travel silently at 1,000 mph over land and 1,300 mph over water, turning long-haul travel into a quick jaunt. Tokyo for the weekend? Leave New York Friday night, slurp ramen by Saturday morning, and be back at your desk Monday.

Major carriers—including United, American, and Japan airlines—are already on board, with 130 pre-orders worth $28 billion.

A Deeper Dive

Best not to reach for the champagne just yet. The road to Overture’s first commercial flight by their projection of 2029/2030 is littered with hurdles. Big hurdles.

For starters, those Symphony engines—custom-built because big players like Rolls-Royce passed—are still in development. As demonstrated by Aerion’s failure, designing, testing, and certifying a new supersonic engine is a Herculean task, and Boom’s timeline is tight.

Yes, the XB-1’s successful test flight proved the company could build a supersonic jet but scaling that to a 64–80 passenger carrier is a different beast. Experts estimate development costs could exceed $8 billion. While impressive, the $700 million Boom has raised falls well short of what it needs.

Likewise, building what is essentially a new airframe is a task even major airline companies try to avoid like a pricey plague.

To quote a must-read article by Brian Potter of Construction Physics entitled, “Will Boom Successfully Build a Supersonic Airliner?”:

Boeing spent an estimated $14 and $15 billion to develop the 777 and the 787, respectively, two to three times as much as initial cost estimates. Airbus spent a similar amount on its A350, and more than twice as much to develop the A380. Bombardier spent nearly $6 billion in a failed attempt to develop a competitor to Boeing’s 737, and Mitsubishi spent nearly $10 billion in a failed attempt to build a regional jet.

And this…

These high costs and risks are why firms like Boeing and Airbus will often move heaven and earth to avoid designing a new clean sheet aircraft, and why Boeing has kept on rolling out modified versions of the 737 for almost 60 years.

Keeping operational costs reasonable is key to offering tickets at a price people are willing to pay. Fuel is a major factor in these costs, as supersonic flights consume up to seven times more fuel than conventional commercial jets.

To reduce fuel costs, Scholl plans for the Overture to use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) produced by AIRCO. While promising, AIRCO's innovative process of producing SAF from captured CO₂ is still in the very early stages of development.

Currently SAF is scarce and expensive, and AIRCO’s ability to scale is unproven, so this part of the Boom dream seems irrationally optimistic. In addition, should AIRCO’s SAF become readily available, it would bring no competitive advantage to Boom as other airplane companies would have access to it as well.

Make no mistake, Scholl and his team have made considerable contributions to reviving supersonic flight, but it’s important to understand the hurdles Boom needs to clear before beginning commercial flights, including…

• Finish creating a new engine from scratch capable of powering an 80-person passenger plane at supersonic speeds.

• Create a new airframe from scratch able to operate at those speeds. While Boom originally envisioned its test model would be a smaller version of the Overture, the test plane was of an entirely different design. Which means it still needs to build and test the Overture airframe.

• Have its engine and airframe pass the intensive certification tests required to get the green light for commercial flights.

• Manage development, manufacturing, and operating costs to be economical with tickets priced around the current cost of a business class ticket.

In Boom’s favor, we have to note that the companies that have tried and failed to develop new engines and airframes in the past didn’t have the significant advantages now offered by artificial intelligence and additive manufacturing (aka 3D printing) in the development process. Boom and all the new supersonic pioneers are heavily relying on both.

Doing hard things is a theme for our current epoch, and Boom is a classic example of just that. Scholl’s team has already defied skeptics by independently breaking the sound barrier, inspiring a new enthusiasm for supersonic commercial flight in the process.

If they can navigate the money, tech, and red tape, they’ll shrink the world in a way we’ve missed for decades. It’s still a long shot, but the payoff both to the company and air travelers is potentially huge.

Boom Supersonic—Key Deliverables to Watch

• Late 2025: Full-scale Symphony engine core test—proving their custom engine can power Overture at Mach 1.7

• Overture Prototype Flight: TBD—full-scale jet hitting supersonic speeds

• Commercial Launch: 2029—delivering jets to airlines like United and American for passenger flights

These deliverables are based on the company’s own aggressive timeline. If I was inclined to bet on such things, I would give odds that we won’t be zipping through the air on a supersonic Boom jet before 2032.

While you wouldn’t know it due to the amount of publicity attracted by Boom there are other companies currently working to bring about a return to supersonic commercial aviation.

Hermeus

Serious speed, on the cheap

While Boom Supersonic is chasing Mach 1.7, Hermeus, an Atlanta-based startup founded in 2018, is aiming higher—literally and figuratively—with plans for a Mach 5 passenger plane called Halcyon.

Mach 5 equates to 3,800 mph—almost three times faster than Boom’s Overture jet—turning a New York-to-London slog into a mere 90 minutes.

To put that speed into perspective, consider that the fastest crewed jet currently in service, the F-15, reaches Mach 2.5—half the speed Hermeus is targeting. A goal this ambitious should raise the red flag of skepticism. However, it’s worth recalling that before the Wright Brothers proved otherwise, most people deemed human flight impossible.

To reach its need for speed, Hermeus is approaching commercial viability differently than Boom, focusing first on generating cash flow and proving their technology by developing their Quarterhorse test aircraft and Darkhorse military drones.

Unlike Boom, which is building a new engine from scratch, Hermeus’s Chimera engine is built around the Pratt & Whitney F100 turbofan, a proven engine used in aircraft like the F-15 and F-16.

The modifications engineered by Hermeus include a precooler that extends the turbine’s performance at higher speeds and a ramjet mode that activates around Mach 3.

Not to get overly technical, a precooler chills incoming air to prevent the turbine from overheating, pushing its limits beyond the usual Mach 2–3 range.

Then, at hypersonic speeds (up to Mach 5), the ramjet takes over. This hybrid setup—turbine for takeoff and low speeds, ramjet for high speeds—was designed and built by Hermeus, including custom components such as the inlet, bypass ducts, and ramjet burner, with about 15% of the engine 3D printed for rapid iteration.

Hermeus claims it designed, built, and bench tested Chimera in just 21 months for $18 million—insanely fast and inexpensive by industry standards, reflecting the effectiveness of leveraging existing technology rather than starting from scratch.

Backed by $160 million from the likes of OpenAI’s Sam Altman and the US Air Force, the company deserves to be taken seriously.

A Deeper Dive

The planned use of a precooler to chill the air before it enters the turbine seems to me like an insurmountable technological challenge, given the speeds the company is targeting. While I’m many things, an aviation engineer is not one of them so I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

The Chimera engine, while clever, still needs to prove it can make the transition from a test stand to a passenger jet without melting or guzzling fuel like a frat house on spring break.

To understand the importance of fuel economy, consider the Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird which was in service from 1966 to 1998. The fastest crewed plane in history, the Blackbird could fly at Mach 3.3 but sucked up so much fuel flying at those speeds it cost upwards of $300,000 per flight hour to operate, a key factor in the decision to retire it.

Funding’s another problem. The $160 million they’ve raised is nothing to sniff at, but hypersonic dreams burn cash fast—think billions, not millions.

The Air Force deal helps, but commercial flights by the early 2030s? That’s a stretch when you factor in the difficulty of certifying a whole new class of aircraft. Also, up until this point they aren’t addressing the issue of sonic booms, something they’ll have to deal with if they want to operate supersonically over land.

Yet, Hermeus is an innovator worth watching. If they manage to overcome the considerable hurdles of providing Mach 5 flight, you’d be able to travel from New York to London… and back… before Boom’s Overture, leaving at the same time, has even arrived in London.

Hermeus—Key Deliverables to Watch

• Late 2025: Testing Quarterhorse Mk 1 plane and Chimera engine in flight—hitting Mach 2.5+ with Chimera engine. This will be an unmanned aircraft.

• 2025–2026 Quarterhorse Mk 2 finishes production and begins flight testing—pushing toward Mach 3–5, scaling tech for Halcyon. Also unmanned.

• 2026–2027 Quarterhorse Mk 3 finishes production and begins flight testing

• 2030s (TBD) Halcyon Debut—Mach 5 passenger jet carrying 20 passengers commercially

Astro Mechanica

A small team reinventing the jet engine

While most companies developing ultra-fast aircraft focus on high-altitude atmospheric flights, Ian Brooke and his company Astro Mechanica have loftier goals: building a vertically integrated aviation company around a whole new type of engine, the Electric Adaptive Engine (EAE).

Brooke, a self-described aerospace obsessive with a knack for building fast, is leading the charge with his nine-person Bay Area team, nicknamed the "Space Mongols."

If the company achieves its goals, in the future a large percentage of the traveling public will travel on Mach 3 (2,300 mph) supersonic planes designed and built by Astro Mechanica, powered by their EAE.

The company’s development strategy involves first perfecting their engine, then using it to create a space-capable carrier plane, followed by a small supersonic business jet and eventually a full-sized Mach 3 commercial jet. More on the company’s grand plan below.

How the Electric Adaptive Engine Works

Traditional jet engines, like those on the Boeing 777, have a fundamental limitation: Their turbine and compressor must spin at the same speed since they're physically connected. This works fine at normal speeds but becomes hugely inefficient at high speeds, leading to excessive fuel burn and overheating.

The EAE, sometimes referred to as the turboelectric adaptive engine, solves this by separating the compressor and the turbine and using an electric motor—powered by a separate turbogenerator—to independently power the compressor.

This seemingly simple change allows the EAE engine to optimize performance at any speed, saving fuel in the process.

This adaptability will not only make the EAE 20–30% more efficient than top-tier engines like the GE9X (currently the most powerful commercial jet engine in the world) but will be more efficient at any speed.

Think of it as a hybrid car versus a gas-guzzler: The EAE sips fuel where traditional engines chug it, potentially making Mach 3 travel commercially viable without astronomical ticket prices.

Additionally, the company is experimenting with using liquid natural gas (LNG) to power their engines. That would be a game-changer as LNG costs only about 1/10 as much as traditional jet fuel. That said, while the company’s cost saving goal is commendable, LNG adds a whole new level of complexity especially as it is not currently approved by the FAA as an aviation fuel.

A Deeper Dive

Astro Mechanica’s speed of execution is remarkable: Using off-the-shelf parts, they built a proof-of-concept engine in just two months and a flight-ready version in three, spending only $500,000 on parts.

The team, financed by Y Combinator and Wayfinder Ventures, includes heavy hitters like Jeff Tiedeken (formerly of Neuralink and Kittyhawk) and veterans with experience in nuclear reactors and satellites.

While promising, ground tests don’t guarantee that the electronics will survive the extreme conditions of Mach 3 or that the compressor will perform as expected. Their Gen3 engine was bench-tested in October 2024, though only at 30% of its full capability, leaving their claims about efficiency still needing real-world validation.

Looking ahead, the company plans to first deploy their engine in a space launch vehicle, which they hope to demonstrate within the next 12 months.

The goal is to generate substantial revenue right away by using an EAE-powered plane to reach the upper atmosphere, then use rockets to launch smaller payloads into space. As demonstrated by SpaceX and Rocket Lab, there is robust and profitable demand for delivering payloads into orbit.

By using an Astro Mechanica plane for these payload deliveries, companies can move a lot faster, and at a lower cost, than is required to integrate into a traditional space launch schedule, which these days is mostly being done by SpaceX.

The second phase will focus on building out a custom airframe for a small supersonic jet (designed for 5 to 8 passengers), taking advantage of the engine’s capabilities at supersonic speeds. Over the next 6 to 8 months, they plan on building a custom airframe to integrate with the engine for this small jet prototype.

With the technology proven during the development of the small supersonic jet, the company will then transition to creating a commercial supersonic airliner capable of carrying 50 to 100 passengers.

However, meeting their production targets will require significant development costs, and industry veterans consider the company’s projected costs—$200 million for their space plane and a similar amount for their small business jet—laughably optimistic. New aircraft development typically requires billions in investment, and scaling this technology for larger commercial airliners will be an even greater challenge.

Despite these challenges, Astro Mechanica remains an intriguing dark horse. If they achieve Mach 3 in 2026/2027—and prove their efficiency claims—they could leapfrog competitors.

Astro Mechanica—Key Deliverables to Watch

• 2025—Turboelectric adaptive engine finalized

• 2026/2027—First test flight of four EAE’s mounted alongside two GE CT7s

• TBD—Space launch plane prototype finishes development, begins testing before it eventually launches

Destinus

Using hydrogen to go hypersonic

Destinus is a Swiss aerospace startup founded in 2021 by serial entrepreneur Mikhail Kokorich.

Like Hermeus, Destinus is also targeting Mach 5 with their Destinus S, a 25-seat jet that’d reduce a Frankfurt-to-Sydney flight from over 20 hours to just over 4.

Destinus has already flown two subsonic prototypes—Jungfrau and Eiger—in 2022, nailing the basics. A test of their third, Destinus-3, a 10-meter beast, is set to reach Mach 1.3 in late 2025 thanks to a hydrogen afterburner integrated with a turbojet. Instead of building their engine from scratch—they’re remixing an off-the-shelf kerosene-fueled turbojet with custom hydrogen tech to juice it up.

The turbojet handles takeoff and lower speeds with the afterburner kicking in for supersonic thrust once at altitude. They tested hydrogen burners on Jungfrau in 2023, and Destinus-3’s subsonic hop is slated for sometime within the next 12 months, with supersonic to follow.

The end game? A Mach 5 jet by 2032–2035, carrying 25 passengers across oceans. Backed by $58 million from private funds and Spanish government grants, they’re lean but making steady progress.

The Deeper Dive

Destinus-3’s Mach 1.3 test is an important start and one we’ll want to watch, but their intention to use an unproven hydrogen fuel component to ultimately reach Mach 5 further complicates development and certification. Heat could melt parts, and hydrogen’s tricky to handle in flight.

Unlike Boom, they do not have any airline orders yet; they’re banking on the hype around their (hopefully) successful tests to attract investors, but that’s still a long shot. Technically, the turbojet-afterburner combo works on paper, but is untested at hypersonic speeds.

The 2032–2035 timeline’s also a stretch—especially considering they’ll need to first certify a hydrogen-powered jet for passengers. The FAA and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) don’t move fast, especially with new technology.

Destinus—Key Deliverables to Watch

• 2026—Destinus-3 supersonic prototype testing

• 2032–2035—Build a hypersonic plane

Like all our contenders, the deliverables are mostly from the companies themselves, found in publicly available sources and should be taken as aspirational goals and not firm targets.

Honorable Mention

Venus Aerospace

Using rockets in the quest for Mach 9

Venus Aerospace, a Texas-based startup founded in 2020 by Sassie and Andrew Duggleby, is aiming for Mach 9 (6,900 mph) with its Stargazer, a 12-seat jet able to connect pretty much any two cities in around an hour—as in NY to Tokyo in 60 minutes flat.

Ponder how that would change the world.

To achieve Mach 9, the company plans to use traditional jets for take-offs and landings, but once at the desired altitude, to ignite actual rockets to propel their plane to the desired speed.

They’ve raised $39 million, enough to fund the February 2024 test flight of their 8-foot, 300-pound supersonic drone. The drone was dropped from an airplane and—powered by a mix of hydrogen peroxide and Jet-A fuel—flew 10 miles.

In that test, the drone was deliberately kept to a speed of Mach 0.9, or about 690 mph, which is fast, but nowhere near Mach 9 fast.

The next test, in 2025, will use a 20-foot hypersonic drone to push closer to their Mach 9 goal, using their rotating detonation rocket engine.

It sounds risky to me, but should they succeed, it would change the world as we know it.

Lockheed Martin X-59 QueSST

Demonstrating supersonic can be quiet

While this entry doesn’t technically fit the theme, because there’s no intention to develop commercial airplanes, the X-59 experimental aircraft developed by Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works division in partnership with NASA is worth mentioning. Its primary goal is demonstrating that supersonic flight can produce a significantly quieter sonic "thump" instead of the disruptive sonic boom. This research might prove essential to the companies still working to tame the boom.

The X-59 is 99.7 feet long with a 29.5-foot wingspan and a distinctive, elongated, tapered nose (about a third of its length) that disperses shock waves to minimize the sonic boom.

It lacks a forward-facing cockpit window; instead, it uses an eXternal Vision System (XVS) with high-resolution cameras and a 4K display for pilot visibility.

Powered by a single General Electric F414-GE-100 engine, it’s designed to cruise at Mach 1.4 (approximately 925 mph) at 55,000 feet with a noise level of around 75 perceived loudness decibels (PLdB), comparable to a car door closing, versus Concorde’s 105 PLdB.

Its first flight, delayed from earlier targets due to technical challenges, is anticipated in 2025. With success, NASA then plans to test it over US cities to gather public response data, with results expected by 2027 to inform regulators like the FAA and ICAO.

The X-59 is important not as a commercial prototype but as a research vehicle being used to collect data on quiet supersonic flight. NASA aims to use this data to push for regulatory changes, potentially leading to the lifting of bans on overland supersonic travel. As such, it’s worth keeping an eye on.

And the Award Goes to…

The path back to supersonic commercial flight is littered with challenges, and none of the current contenders are guaranteed to make it to the end with their current corporate structures intact.

That said, at this point Boom clearly has the best chances of making it first across the finish line.

With about $700 million in the bank, they are the best capitalized of the lot.

More important, they are the only company with reasonably firm commitments from airlines looking to buy their finished Overture supersonic carriers. The size of those commitments—over $28 billion—is a tangible financial reward which will prove immensely helpful in future money-raising efforts.

And they are going to have to raise a lot of money. Recently Scholl hinted that Boom may soon decide to go public. That could go a long way towards raising the funds it needs to get through to production.

On the technical front, while there are aspects of their execution to date one can find fault with, Boom’s XB-1’s Mach 1.122 flight proved their “Boomless Cruise” tech works, a giant step forward.

Other companies are hot on their tail, with both Destinus and Astro Mechanica aiming for test flights within the next 12 months. But, for now, Boom’s the only company with proven technology.

Boom’s business model is also the most straightforward—build jets and sell them to airlines at $200 million apiece. That they already have $28 billion in commitments speaks to their ability to sell the dream. Now they just need to produce the reality.

Even so, it’s my personal feeling that Astro Mechanica could ultimately emerge a winner. That's because they are more focused on creating an engine that may solve the biggest problems in supersonic flights: the amount of fuel used, and the technical issues involved with operating at those speeds.

While Boom’s Mach 1.3 is attractive, a successful test by Asto Mechanica at Mach 2 or Mach 3—with the 20% to 30% fuel savings they are targeting—would move it up the leaderboard.

Regardless of who wins the race, it’s safe to surmise that—like self-driving cars—at this point the question is not will super-fast commercial flights return, but when.

After all, if we could manage the tech 50 years ago, we can surely do it today… especially considering the advances in material sciences and breakthroughs in AI and additive manufacturing.

Now, let’s move on to another potentially game-changing development in commercial aviation.

Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft (eVTOL)

Anyone who travels frequently in and out of big cities will likely share memories of sitting in the back of a grimy taxi, crawling through traffic, anxiously hoping to reach the airport in time for a flight.

While many airports now offer helicopter services, they are invariably expensive, limited, and their terminals inconveniently located for the simple reason that helicopters are so damn noisy.

Enter the eVTOL—a whisper-quiet vertical takeoff and landing vehicle—designed to whisk up to four passengers as far as 100 miles at speeds up to 200 miles an hour. Best of all, because they are so quiet, they can operate out of conveniently located downtown terminals.

There are two companies leading the pack in making eVTOL a near-term reality.

Joby Aviation

Racing for lift-off

Founded in 2009, Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is a California-based company developing an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft which seats four passengers plus a pilot, has a range of 100+ miles, and can fly at speeds up to 200 mph.

Joby has been a frontrunner in the air taxi space, securing significant funding from investors like Toyota, Uber, and the US Air Force. In 2021, they went public via a SPAC merger, raising over $1.6 billion. They have the cash—and the business acumen—to take the company across the finish line.

Joby has already secured its Part 135 Air Carrier Certificate, a key step toward commercial operations. It also began piloted test flights in 2021, allowing it to accumulate years of real-world flight data.

Beyond certification, Joby has secured $131 million in US Air Force contracts aimed at integrating its aircraft into defense operations. It has also formed strategic partnerships with Delta Air Lines for airport transport and Toyota for mass production.

Joby recently secured a six-year exclusive agreement with the Road and Transport Authority of Dubai to begin operating air taxi services in 2026. Construction has already begun on a vertiport at Dubai International Airport to support operations.

Joby is targeting a 2025 commercial launch in New York and Los Angeles, with London—in conjunction with Virgin Atlantic—not long after.

We live half the year in Summerset, England. Instead of a lot of hassle and two or more hours traveling to our home via bus, train, or car, with Joby we’d be able to make the journey in about 30 minutes.

And, if Joby executes on its proposed business model, the ride will cost no more than a premium ride-share.

Now project that sort of convenience across all the major airports and city centers in the world (over time, of course). It could be a real game changer.

Unlike the companies chasing supersonic dreams, Joby and its nearest competitor, Archer Aviation, are already publicly trading but, more to the point, well down the path to commercial implementation.

This is happening, and soon.

Archer Aviation

Well-financed with key partners and a focused business plan

Founded in 2018 by Brett Adcock and Adam Goldstein, Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) has rocketed from concept to near-certification in record time.

The company’s Midnight aircraft (pictured below) looks like a sleek helicopter-plane hybrid with 12 tilting propellers. Though it’s designed to carry a pilot and four passengers at 150 mph for trips up to 100 miles, Archer's initial focus is on the sweet spot of making 20–30-mile hops between cities and airports.

Like Joby's eVTOL, it operates with minimal noise and aims to offer transportation services at a cost comparable to Uber Black per passenger mile.

Archer has locked in a massive deal with United Airlines for up to 500 aircraft and secured a manufacturing facility in Georgia that, once fully operating, will be able to pump out up to 650 aircraft yearly.

The tech's solid too. Midnight uses an unusually simple design with quick-charging fixed batteries (no swapping needed) and redundant systems for safety. The propellers tilt forward for efficient cruise flight, while the aircraft's electric motors eliminate the complexity and maintenance headaches of traditional helicopters.

Money-wise, Archer's sitting pretty with over $1.1 billion raised and major backing from United Airlines, Stellantis, and Boeing. They're targeting 2025 for FAA certification followed shortly thereafter with commercial launches in Chicago and UAE.

By partnering with auto giant Stellantis (think Chrysler and Fiat), they're tapping into car industry expertise for high-volume production. This could help them hit their target price of around $1 million per aircraft—crucial for making the economics work.

Of course, there are hurdles, but they apply to Joby as well. For instance, the FAA has never certified an eVTOL before, battery tech needs to prove itself in daily operations, and they'll need to build out landing sites as well as train a lot of pilots. But Archer's already flying full-scale prototypes and running their assembly line—concrete progress.

Archer vs. Joby—The eVTOL Heavyweights

Joby's got the experience edge—they've been at this since 2009 and have logged over 30,000 test flights. Their aircraft's proven it can hit 150 mph and fly 150 miles, significantly outranging Archer's Midnight’s 100-mile range. Joby also claims their design is quieter, producing just 45 decibels at 1,000 feet.

Archer's newer but moving faster. Their Midnight aircraft is optimized for shorter 20–30-mile trips with quick battery charging, while Joby's pushing for longer regional flights.

Archer has arguably got the better manufacturing setup through Stellantis, which brings auto industry mass-production expertise to the table. Joby's partnered with Toyota, but the relationship seems less integrated.

Financially, Joby is backed by Toyota ($400M), Delta, and the US Air Force. Archer has the United Airlines deal (up to 500 aircraft), plus the Stellantis partnership and the backing of Boeing.

The real differentiator might be their business approaches. Joby's spreading bets across military contracts, emergency services, and commercial taxi services. Archer's laser-focused on the urban air taxi market with a simpler aircraft that's potentially easier to certify and manufacture.

Both look solid, but Archer might have the edge on near-term execution—they've got a clearer path to manufacturing scale and a more focused market strategy. Joby's got better range and more experience, but their broader ambitions could complicate their path to market.

The race is tight—both have real aircraft flying, major partners, and are well along in the certification progress. Whoever nails the manufacturing ramp-up and initial operations will likely take the lead. In this game, execution matters more than specs.

For the record, there are probably another dozen or so companies trying to compete in the eVTOL market, but only one, Beta Technologies, is nearly as far along technically and financially as Joby and Archer.

Beta is focused entirely on the cargo side, with an aircraft able to carry 1,500 pounds of cargo or 6 passengers. They have major deals with UPS and the Air Force, so they’re also likely to end up in the winner’s circle, but in a different niche.

Concluding Thoughts

Ever since the tinkering bicycle builders, the Wright Brothers, invented the first successful flying machine, humankind has dreamed of new and better ways to take to the skies.

In this Deep Dive, I’ve explored just a handful of the most ambitious—and practical—efforts to develop innovative forms of flight that could soon become reality.

Of course, there is much more going on in the aviation industry, including drones, dirigibles, and military aircraft.

Topics for another day.

In terms of commercial travel, I am completely confident electric air taxis are going to be appearing at major airports in the very near future.

And also—for the reasons explained—supersonic commercial flights will likely take longer to roll out than hype suggests. Still, with Boom’s successful test, coupled with the forward-thinking vibe in industry and government right now, I believe the top players will make solid progress over the next five years. And that progress will ultimately lead to supersonic travel becoming just another part of daily life by the late 2030s.

While there are lots of hurdles remaining to be cleared, it won’t be long before the skies transform to match the futurists’ dreams—whisper-quiet people movers humming between skyscrapers and rocket-like crafts zipping us across the planet.

Don’t forget to fasten your seatbelt.

—David Galland

For the Rational Optimist Society

PS: About that UFO. Aviation aficionados will probably have identified the UFO I saw back in 1976 as a Harrier Jump Jet, a British innovation.

It was the first successful vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) fighter. Conceived in the 1950s, it first hovered in 1960 (while tethered) and flew freely soon after.

The Harrier GR.1 was deployed by the Royal Air Force in 1969, excelling in short, rough-field operations despite modest speed (730 mph).

The Harrier I saw was without question participating in the annual Chicago Air Show, one of the world’s premier aviation events, regularly attracting over 1 million spectators.

The Harrier was retired by the UK military in 2010, but the US continued to use it until 2022 when it was replaced by the F-35B which also has hovering capabilities.