> But each one costs more than most people earn in a lifetime. And using $4 million missiles to destroy $20,000 drones is not sustainable. The UAE spent an estimated $1 billion per day on interceptions.
The unseen side of the equation is the cost of what the interceptions prevented. What would the per-day damage have been without those interceptions?
The interceptor/drone cost mismatch only matters if you can't stop the enemy producing drones. The drone factories will have been second wave targets without a doubt. It is very unlikely that Iran can produce much in the way of more missiles or drones which is probably why they appear to be husbanding their use.
Glad you all are well, Stephen! An interesting week for sure.
My last job on active duty was with a small organization called the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab, and 10 years ago, we were already wrestling with the problems we are now seeing in real time: cost per shot; quantity vs. quality in unmanned systems, and the "opportunity costs" of very exquisite, but often fragile boutique weapons systems. And how to solve these problems in an environment where you were assumed to be "off the grid" (which makes lasers and drone battery charging a challenge(. In addition to the defense industry concentration that you mention, a challenge was convincing congress to spend money on things that weren't "a program" that addressed "a requirement." Glad to see we have made headway in helping these small innovators get their feet in the door.
On a completely separate note, a lot of people in our neck of the woods this week have had to put some thought into a "go bag." What do you put in the small suitcase or two that may be all you're allowed on an evacuation flight if things go way south? It's a pretty good thought exercise (hopefully no more than that) about what is really important--and a good first step to simplifying your life around those things.
The reports in this weekly publication are precisely what the name suggests. The future looks very scary, but the stories told in the RO give me hope - for my children and grandchildren - and the entire world.
And, developing cheap & effective defensive “weapons” reduces the likelihood of massive deaths from warfare.
I so look forward to your Stacks. I worked on the F14 (albeit a "few" years ago. The company was also working on a B52 project. I learned to really appreciate those who design and manufacture our defense weapons. Those innovations often transfer to peaceful use, and that's a good thing.
Fascinating article. I heard and saw the same two bangs and imagine lots of us have been thinking about the maths behind this asymmetric war since.
Along with the daily stats on intercepts it would be great to have a feel for how often the various defensive systems are being used. Care to make an estimate?
When a rational optimist prays for missiles and laser weapons, he is neither optimistic nor rational. He might want to check his math as well.
"These missiles [Patriots] did an outstanding job protecting the Gulf over the past week. In the UAE alone they intercepted over 1,000 warheads and drones destined to kill."
The usual targeting protocol is to fire two Patriot missiles for each incoming warhead. That would mean 2000 Patriot missiles were launched to intercept those warheads and drones. Which in turn means that the UAE alone has already fired off more than three years worth of production in the space of a few days.
The bottom line is that neither the UAE nor anyone else has such an abundance of Patriots. Even if just a single Patriot was launched for each incoming warhead, there isn't enough interceptors. And the success rate is never 100%, either. Some missiles and drones will get through even with an unlimited supply of Patriots.
Iran has not run out of drones and missiles. They've used them so far to blind US radars in the Gulf and paralyze shipping, air travel and commerce in Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Iran could just as easily attack the oil infrastructure in those countries, leading to catastrophic consequences. But they're staying their hand on that one, for now. They're rational and optimistic about the eventual outcome.
Only three likes (one was mine)? It's always good to hear the Minority report" as well as the "optimistic" stuff. In a multitude of counselors, there is safety. -Proverbs 11:14
Why not just wage peace instead of war? How about a rationalistic appraisal of efforts to end war altogether. No one ever “wins” a war. That’s one of history’s greatest lies.
That's true. WWII didn't solve anything, which is why WWIII is inevitable. Ditto for WWI. If that meddler Wilson had stayed out, both sides would have given up and made peace. But thinking war can be ended is unrealistic. Since the fall of man, we all have a natural enmity against God, and we take it out on each other. Fortunately, there is a better way. https://discourseonagape.org/booklets/ But not for the majority. The majority will try to solve their own problems, and thus far, they have failed. I think it's safe to say that trend will continue to the end of time.
“My colleague Dan, a sheltered American (God bless him), pulled up a map and was surprised just how close Abu Dhabi is to Iran.”
Just confirms the old adage that wars are God’s way of teaching Americans geography…
can confirm
> But each one costs more than most people earn in a lifetime. And using $4 million missiles to destroy $20,000 drones is not sustainable. The UAE spent an estimated $1 billion per day on interceptions.
The unseen side of the equation is the cost of what the interceptions prevented. What would the per-day damage have been without those interceptions?
The interceptor/drone cost mismatch only matters if you can't stop the enemy producing drones. The drone factories will have been second wave targets without a doubt. It is very unlikely that Iran can produce much in the way of more missiles or drones which is probably why they appear to be husbanding their use.
I hope you and your family stay safe.
Excellent info, as always!
Wishing you safety and regional safety and security asap!
Great work Stephen.
Always enlightening. The present may be gloomy but the future looks bright.
Glad you all are well, Stephen! An interesting week for sure.
My last job on active duty was with a small organization called the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab, and 10 years ago, we were already wrestling with the problems we are now seeing in real time: cost per shot; quantity vs. quality in unmanned systems, and the "opportunity costs" of very exquisite, but often fragile boutique weapons systems. And how to solve these problems in an environment where you were assumed to be "off the grid" (which makes lasers and drone battery charging a challenge(. In addition to the defense industry concentration that you mention, a challenge was convincing congress to spend money on things that weren't "a program" that addressed "a requirement." Glad to see we have made headway in helping these small innovators get their feet in the door.
On a completely separate note, a lot of people in our neck of the woods this week have had to put some thought into a "go bag." What do you put in the small suitcase or two that may be all you're allowed on an evacuation flight if things go way south? It's a pretty good thought exercise (hopefully no more than that) about what is really important--and a good first step to simplifying your life around those things.
Keep your head down!
The reports in this weekly publication are precisely what the name suggests. The future looks very scary, but the stories told in the RO give me hope - for my children and grandchildren - and the entire world.
And, developing cheap & effective defensive “weapons” reduces the likelihood of massive deaths from warfare.
I so look forward to your Stacks. I worked on the F14 (albeit a "few" years ago. The company was also working on a B52 project. I learned to really appreciate those who design and manufacture our defense weapons. Those innovations often transfer to peaceful use, and that's a good thing.
Thank you for all your fascinating information.
CCinSC A great update!!! Many thanks.
Very good appraisal, Thanks
Fascinating article. I heard and saw the same two bangs and imagine lots of us have been thinking about the maths behind this asymmetric war since.
Along with the daily stats on intercepts it would be great to have a feel for how often the various defensive systems are being used. Care to make an estimate?
When a rational optimist prays for missiles and laser weapons, he is neither optimistic nor rational. He might want to check his math as well.
"These missiles [Patriots] did an outstanding job protecting the Gulf over the past week. In the UAE alone they intercepted over 1,000 warheads and drones destined to kill."
The usual targeting protocol is to fire two Patriot missiles for each incoming warhead. That would mean 2000 Patriot missiles were launched to intercept those warheads and drones. Which in turn means that the UAE alone has already fired off more than three years worth of production in the space of a few days.
The bottom line is that neither the UAE nor anyone else has such an abundance of Patriots. Even if just a single Patriot was launched for each incoming warhead, there isn't enough interceptors. And the success rate is never 100%, either. Some missiles and drones will get through even with an unlimited supply of Patriots.
Iran has not run out of drones and missiles. They've used them so far to blind US radars in the Gulf and paralyze shipping, air travel and commerce in Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Iran could just as easily attack the oil infrastructure in those countries, leading to catastrophic consequences. But they're staying their hand on that one, for now. They're rational and optimistic about the eventual outcome.
Only three likes (one was mine)? It's always good to hear the Minority report" as well as the "optimistic" stuff. In a multitude of counselors, there is safety. -Proverbs 11:14
curious to know what the total production of patriots has been up to now? Care to speculate? worldwide, I mean.
Why not just wage peace instead of war? How about a rationalistic appraisal of efforts to end war altogether. No one ever “wins” a war. That’s one of history’s greatest lies.
That's true. WWII didn't solve anything, which is why WWIII is inevitable. Ditto for WWI. If that meddler Wilson had stayed out, both sides would have given up and made peace. But thinking war can be ended is unrealistic. Since the fall of man, we all have a natural enmity against God, and we take it out on each other. Fortunately, there is a better way. https://discourseonagape.org/booklets/ But not for the majority. The majority will try to solve their own problems, and thus far, they have failed. I think it's safe to say that trend will continue to the end of time.