Welcome to D.R.E.A.M world

How many moms’ lives will this company save?

In today’s Diary:

• For free, by air

• “The Blight”

• Life-saving blood drops from the sky

• Over the horizon (without breaking the law)

• Not to sound like a NIMBY…

Dear Rational Optimist,

Two flying robots recently dropped off my burrito lunch. The first one arrived so fast, in 5 minutes, I missed capturing it on video. So I ordered another and ate both.

Compare this to Uber Eats. A human drives a 3,000 lb. car for ½ an hour, through traffic, to deliver 1 lb. of food. Inefficient to say the least. Drones are the disruption this business model sorely needs.

Good news: Drone delivery may be coming to your neighborhood. And this is about far more than quick food. Drones are already saving lives by quickly delivering emergency blood, for example.

We’re at an inflection point in drone technology—let’s look at how these flying robots will reshape daily life.

Welcome to D.R.E.A.M world
(Drones. Rule. Everything. Around. Me.)

The world's largest drone delivery provider just launched in a Dallas suburb. People within two miles of a Walmart Supercenter can now receive any of 65,000 items in under 30 minutes. Delivered by Zipline. For free, by air.

This isn't a flashy demo. It’s a full-scale launch of a technology that's already logged more air miles than the rest of the American drone industry combined.

The story of Zipline is the story of “The Blight.” Zipline is an American company, but when it launched in 2016, regulators wouldn’t let it operate in America. The FAA's “beyond visual line of sight” rule required operators to physically see their drones at all times.

Undeterred, Zipline went to Rwanda to prove itself, delivering blood and medical supplies to remote hospitals.

It's an all too familiar pattern for America: invent breakthrough tech, build it, then regulate away our lead. We squandered leads in nuclear energy, solar, biotech, and now drones.

I’m (rationally) optimistic we’re over The Blight. Exhibit 1: The FAA has granted Zipline a special exemption so their drones can finally disappear over the horizon without breaking the law. Really they should change the law. But exemptions are a start.

Author George Mack says one key trait of high agency people is…

An immigrant mentality

“If they've moved from their home country, that's an even greater sign. It takes agency to spot you're in the wrong place.”

Zipline is a high agency start-up. Regulators won’t let us do business at home? No problem. We’ll do it in the African bush!

Zipline’s all-electric drone network has flown more than 100 million miles, handling 1.5 million deliveries. It now ships 70% of Rwanda's national blood supply.

A University of Pennsylvania study found Zipline reduced maternal mortality by 88% in hospitals it serves. Before Zipline, a woman hemorrhaging after delivery might wait two hours for blood to arrive over pothole-riddled dirt roads. Now life-saving blood drops from the sky in 15 minutes.

Eight out of nine moms who would’ve died now live to raise their kids, thanks to flying robots that travel as the crow flies.

Zipline should plaster this story all over its website. Get your burrito faster? Cool. Save moms? Revolutionary.

Now Zipline is bringing its battle-tested tech to American suburbia

Its new Platform 2 system might be the coolest drone tech I’ve seen.

The main drone hovers 300 feet in the air while lowering a microwave-sized "Zip," an autonomous droid that guides itself to your doorstep with precision measured in inches. After dropping off your groceries, the tether spools back up, and the Zip stows away inside the main drone.

Dude, wake up! The future is on your doorstep.

“Turn on the news quick!”

I got that hurried text from a friend a few days after my burrito drone delivery.

Rational Optimists know the news is just a highlight reel of the worst things happening on any given day. Sign the no news pledge with me! But I broke my abstinence and turned on the TV to find nearby residents complaining about delivery drones.

“Too noisy. Too big. Too many.”

Oh no, NIMBY’s have discovered drones.

Hands off my flying robot! Let’s dispel some drone myths.

Some folks think widespread drone delivery = skies blackened by noisy metal robots. In reality drones are an environmentalist’s best friend.

Today a guy driving a gas guzzler delivers your DoorDash. How about an autonomous, fully electric 50 lb. drone instead? Seems like the right-sized tool for the job.

We've surrendered our neighborhoods to delivery vehicles. Not to sound like a NIMBY… but they bring congestion, noise and danger, especially for kids. On my street alone I count at least 20 trucks daily from Amazon, UPS, FedEx, Uber Eats and more.

Drones fly above it all, leaving streets to people. Fewer delivery trucks mean less traffic, less pollution, less noise. In D.R.E.A.M world, our neighborhoods will be safer, quieter, and far more peaceful.

This is what I love most about innovation. It creates win-win scenarios like:

• 10X faster delivery

• Less pollution

• Fewer cars on the road

NIMBYs, tell me which part you don’t like.

Drones also rewrite delivery economics. If you’re in the business of hauling stuff from A to B you know all about drivers demanding raises, gas prices climbing, and trucks wearing out.

Zipline transforms this by flying on silicon chips and electricity. Picture a fleet that gets cheaper to operate each passing month as battery prices continue to drop.

Next up: Electric flying robots delivering Tylenol for your kid at 3am for free.

When you call 911 in Las Vegas today…

A drone often arrives before an officer.

This "Drones as First Responders" model will sweep across America within a few years. They'll deliver defibrillators to heart attack victims, drop flotation devices to drowning swimmers, and find lost hikers before hypothermia sets in.

Drones can also silently monitor every sports game, concert, and political rally, identifying potential threats. This fixes safety. Instead of making good people endure hour-long security lines, metal detectors and creepy pat-downs, drone security focuses on actual threats.

Silent Guardians, the new standard in public safety. Now there’s a billion-dollar business idea for you.

"Didn’t we always have flying robots Grandpa?"

That’s what my grandkids will say when I tell them I saw the birth of drone delivery. It’s funny how normal my second lunch-by-drone delivery felt.

We've spent centuries mastering the ground—laying asphalt, pouring concrete, stretching rails. But the skies have remained largely empty. That will change more in the next five years than in the previous fifty. Before long, flying robots will be as common as pigeons.

Some thoughts and tips as we enter D.R.E.A.M World:

Your new time machine. If you could eliminate quick errands from your life, how would you use those reclaimed hours? Never have to run to the store for milk or pick up a prescription again. For a busy parent (hand raised) this could be the difference between eating dinner with your family or not.

The worst they’ll ever be. One of the coolest things about Tesla’s vehicles is the regular software updates. During California’s recent wildfires, Tesla pushed an update that improved the air filtration system, essentially creating a clean air bubble inside the car.

Zipline has copied this “quick update” model. A recent update included a faster takeoff maneuver that shaved 29 seconds off each flight. For medical deliveries, 29 seconds matters.

Teach the kids. The best drone pilot today isn't some Air Force ace. It's a teenage girl in Thailand nicknamed "Milk" who developed her skills playing video games.

Don’t let your kids use this as an excuse to play more video games. But maybe consider buying a cheap drone off Amazon. Even better: Let your older kids buy one with money they’ve earned themselves. They could be the next “Milk.”

Seek opportunities. Drones are going to be EVERYWHERE. Spraying crops (already happening in wine country). Spotting cracks in bridges. Cleaning skyscraper windows. Lugging backpacks up Mount Everest (already happening). New careers will emerge that didn't exist five years ago. Think about taking advantage of these new opportunities.

Experience it. If you're in Dallas, download the Zipline app and order some groceries. Or find another drone delivery service near you. It will change your perspective.

Spread rational optimism. Mainstream media spread fear about drones. Here comes the Terminator! We know drones save lives. Tell that story. It matters.

I believe we'll look back on this moment as the quiet beginning of a transformation as profound as the car revolution.

The great Carl Sagan said: "It was easy to predict mass car ownership but hard to predict Walmart." Same for drones.

We can easily envision packages arriving on doorsteps. But the true revolution will be in second-order effects we can barely glimpse today. Just as cars collapsed the distance between towns, drones will collapse the vertical dimension. A new highway is opening up above our heads. What new billion-dollar companies will it birth?

A huge congratulations to Zipline on its big launch. It’s flown 10 times as many miles as the rest of the US industry combined. It’s also the only startup to receive permission to fly beyond visual line of sight in all 50 states. I can’t wait to visit the team in San Francisco next time I’m in town.

I love founder Keller Rinaudo Cliffton’s vision: “Anybody should be able to pull out a phone, press a button and have what you need teleported to the GPS coordinates of that phone in 10 minutes.”

But what about killer drones?

I’ve only covered the consumer aspects of drones today. In an upcoming issue, we’ll dig into military drones. Drones are the defining technology of the war in Ukraine. They’ve completely changed the balance of power and will transform how future wars are fought.

As a result, there’s a Cambrian explosion of innovation happening in this space. Drone startups and anti-drone startups are sprouting up everywhere.

See you next week. And please, don’t forget to click the “Like” and “Restack” buttons below to spread rational optimism! Every click counts.

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Stephen McBride is co-founder of the Rational Optimist Society.

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